ML Analysis — STARKE MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
CCN 150102 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
49
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health16/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility7/15
Operational Efficiency7/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-4.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 21.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-32.5%, 24.1%]. P51 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 976290.467 | +0.0839 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1242327.467 | -0.0470 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.708 | -0.0387 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.011 | +0.0255 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.125 | +0.0219 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
51.8%
Distress Risk
$4.3M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
44.6%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P60. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
IN distress rate: 42.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.282 | +0.226 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.006 | -0.083 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.223 | -0.065 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1242327.467 | +0.020 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.433 | +0.018 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 15.000 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.3M
Current margin: 21.4%
Projected margin: 44.6%
Grade: A
Comps: 54
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.562 | 0.742 | 18.0% | $2.7M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.282 | 0.441 | 15.8% | $1.0M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.223 | 0.488 | 26.5% | $577K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 31.7 | [25.0, 75.0] | P69 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |