ML Analysis — OSF HEALTHCARE TRANSITIONAL CARE HOS
CCN 142013 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
51
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-10.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -38.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-39.0%, 17.6%]. P36 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 1269804.778 | -0.0432 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.890 | -0.0345 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 18.000 | +0.0204 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 0.803 | +0.0158 | Higher Occupancy increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1760404.500 | -0.0127 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 32%Turnaround possible (32%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
40.1%
Distress Risk
$487K
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-36.5%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P86. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
IL distress rate: 51.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.803 | -0.258 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.002 | -0.087 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.311 | -0.026 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1269804.778 | +0.018 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 18.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.300 | -0.005 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $487K
Current margin: -38.6%
Projected margin: -36.5%
Grade: D
Comps: 59
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.311 | 0.493 | 18.2% | $487K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 32.7 | [25.0, 75.0] | P73 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.1% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P4 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |