ML Analysis — JACKSONVILLE MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
CCN 141352 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
55
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health8/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-2.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -1.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-31.2%, 25.4%]. P55 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Log(Beds) | 3.497 | -0.0204 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 33.000 | +0.0181 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 0.769 | +0.0139 | Higher Occupancy increases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.270 | -0.0110 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 1194461.335 | +0.0107 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 45%Turnaround possible (45%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Log(Beds).
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
41.1%
Distress Risk
$1.3M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
1.4%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P42. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
IL distress rate: 51.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.769 | -0.226 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.037 | -0.051 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.270 | -0.044 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 33.000 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.353 | +0.004 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1553097.606 | +0.002 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.3M
Current margin: -1.2%
Projected margin: 1.4%
Grade: D
Comps: 75
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.270 | 0.493 | 22.3% | $1.3M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 28.7 | [25.0, 75.0] | P48 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |