ML Analysis — PRESENCE MERCY MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 140174 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
47
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health11/25
RCM Upside14/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency1/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-8.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 1.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-36.5%, 20.1%]. P42 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 919003.284 | +0.0909 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 933345.021 | -0.0902 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.120 | +0.0236 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.180 | -0.0212 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.247 | +0.0203 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
51.7%
Distress Risk
$6.4M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
5.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P37. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
IL distress rate: 51.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.344 | +0.168 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.180 | -0.084 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 933345.021 | +0.038 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.067 | -0.022 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.268 | -0.010 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 190.000 | +0.006 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.4M
Current margin: 1.5%
Projected margin: 5.2%
Grade: D
Comps: 96
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.180 | 0.328 | 14.8% | $3.1M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.344 | 0.705 | 36.1% | $2.4M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.665 | 0.731 | 6.6% | $990K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 26.2 | [25.0, 75.0] | P36 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |