ML Analysis — RICHLAND MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
CCN 140147 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
39
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health3/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position12/20
Demand Defensibility5/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-17.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -50.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-45.5%, 11.1%]. P24 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 987869.191 | -0.0826 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.067 | +0.0387 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 287003.209 | -0.0194 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Bed Count | 47.000 | +0.0159 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.240 | -0.0145 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 23%Low turnaround probability (23%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Reimbursement Quality.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
56.7%
Distress Risk
$6.4M
RCM Opportunity
B
Opportunity Grade
-36.3%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P89. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
IL distress rate: 51.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.291 | +0.218 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.164 | +0.075 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.240 | -0.058 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.557 | +0.039 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 987869.191 | +0.035 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 47.000 | -0.014 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.4M
Current margin: -50.0%
Projected margin: -36.3%
Grade: B
Comps: 74
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.280 | 0.545 | 26.5% | $4.0M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.240 | 0.489 | 24.9% | $1.4M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.291 | 0.449 | 15.8% | $1.0M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 36.6 | [25.0, 75.0] | P80 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 98.8% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P3 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |