ML Analysis — ADVENTIST LAGRANGE MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
CCN 140065 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
48
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health6/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility12/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-6.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -8.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-34.3%, 22.3%]. P47 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 1107306.732 | -0.0659 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1199554.131 | +0.0564 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.126 | +0.0217 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.124 | +0.0174 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.248 | -0.0135 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 40%Turnaround possible (40%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
47.3%
Distress Risk
$6.0M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-5.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P48. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
IL distress rate: 51.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.019 | -0.070 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.248 | -0.054 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1107306.732 | +0.028 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.473 | +0.025 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.538 | -0.012 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 168.000 | +0.003 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.0M
Current margin: -8.3%
Projected margin: -5.1%
Grade: D
Comps: 98
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.508 | 0.722 | 21.4% | $3.2M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.248 | 0.328 | 8.0% | $1.7M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.538 | 0.703 | 16.5% | $1.1M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 26.2 | [25.0, 75.0] | P36 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |