ML Analysis — OAK PARK HOSPITAL
CCN 140063 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
46
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health6/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-9.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -8.7%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-37.9%, 18.7%]. P38 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 937549.373 | -0.0896 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1019000.816 | +0.0786 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 273704.714 | -0.0199 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.220 | +0.0197 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 0.292 | -0.0133 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 34%Turnaround possible (34%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
53.4%
Distress Risk
$5.8M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-5.4%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P60. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
IL distress rate: 51.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.292 | +0.217 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.025 | -0.064 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.276 | -0.041 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 937549.373 | +0.038 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.382 | +0.010 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 185.000 | +0.005 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.8M
Current margin: -8.7%
Projected margin: -5.4%
Grade: D
Comps: 98
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.292 | 0.705 | 41.3% | $2.7M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.593 | 0.729 | 13.6% | $2.0M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.276 | 0.326 | 5.0% | $1.0M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 26.5 | [25.0, 75.0] | P37 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |