ML Analysis — ST JOSEPH REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 130003 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
56
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside17/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-7.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -3.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-35.4%, 21.2%]. P44 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bed Utilization Value | 427103.096 | -0.0148 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Occupancy | 0.279 | -0.0140 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.154 | +0.0137 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Expense/Bed | 1576515.154 | +0.0099 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.035 | +0.0082 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi |
Turnaround: 38%Turnaround possible (38%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Bed Utilization Value.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
54.7%
Distress Risk
$8.6M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
2.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P39. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
ID distress rate: 46.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.279 | +0.229 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.300 | -0.031 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.388 | +0.011 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.098 | +0.009 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 110.000 | -0.005 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1530814.973 | +0.003 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $8.6M
Current margin: -3.0%
Projected margin: 2.1%
Grade: D
Comps: 2117
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.513 | 0.751 | 23.8% | $3.6M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.279 | 0.749 | 47.0% | $3.1M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.300 | 0.397 | 9.7% | $1.9M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 27.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P38 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |