ML Analysis — KUAKINI MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 120007 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
48
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health5/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-17.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -16.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-45.8%, 10.8%]. P24 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 851057.971 | -0.1017 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 988191.588 | +0.0824 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.147 | -0.0753 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.294 | -0.0267 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.136 | +0.0177 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 22%Low turnaround probability (22%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Expense/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
51.2%
Distress Risk
$2.5M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-14.4%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P19. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
HI distress rate: 68.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.401 | +0.116 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.005 | -0.084 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 851057.971 | +0.043 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.250 | -0.013 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.395 | +0.012 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 170.000 | +0.003 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.5M
Current margin: -16.1%
Projected margin: -14.4%
Grade: D
Comps: 2018
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.401 | 0.753 | 35.3% | $2.3M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.745 | 0.755 | 1.0% | $151K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.3 | [25.0, 75.0] | P29 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |