ML Analysis — ACADIA GREENLEAF HOSPITAL
CCN 114036 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
46
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-4.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 18.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-32.3%, 24.3%]. P52 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 239853.133 | -0.1870 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 196545.204 | +0.1799 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.319 | -0.0337 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Occupancy | 0.920 | +0.0224 | Higher Occupancy increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 220674.187 | -0.0216 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
nan%
Distress Risk
$0
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
18.1%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
GA distress rate: 44.4%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.920 | -0.367 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.164 | -0.028 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 239853.133 | +0.079 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.381 | +0.006 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 113.000 | -0.005 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $0
Current margin: 18.1%
Projected margin: 18.1%
Grade: D
Comps: 56
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |