ML Analysis — RIVERWOODS BEHAVIORAL HEALTH SYSTEM
CCN 114035 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
44
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-6.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -5.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-34.4%, 22.2%]. P47 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 189229.440 | -0.1940 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 199299.937 | +0.1796 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 142042.389 | -0.0243 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.407 | +0.0240 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.256 | -0.0156 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m |
Turnaround: 39%Turnaround possible (39%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
nan%
Distress Risk
$807K
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-3.4%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
GA distress rate: 44.4%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.751 | -0.209 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.071 | -0.044 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 189229.439 | +0.082 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.275 | -0.042 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 223.000 | +0.010 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $807K
Current margin: -5.3%
Projected margin: -3.4%
Grade: D
Comps: 49
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.751 | 0.873 | 12.2% | $807K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |