ML Analysis — SOUTHERN CRESCENT HOSPITAL
CCN 114032 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
44
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health6/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-6.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -4.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-34.3%, 22.3%]. P47 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 190708.197 | -0.1938 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 199537.147 | +0.1796 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 142510.801 | -0.0242 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.265 | -0.0181 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.028 | +0.0130 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi |
Turnaround: 40%Turnaround possible (40%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
nan%
Distress Risk
$729K
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-1.5%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
GA distress rate: 44.4%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.747 | -0.206 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.117 | -0.036 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 190708.197 | +0.082 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.299 | -0.031 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 122.000 | -0.004 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $729K
Current margin: -4.6%
Projected margin: -1.5%
Grade: D
Comps: 53
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.747 | 0.858 | 11.1% | $729K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |