ML Analysis — EAST CENTRAL REGIONAL HOSPITAL

🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.

Investability Score

Pass — risk/return profile does not justify PE capital deployment at market multiples.

/ 100 (F)

Financial Health0/25

RCM Upside5/25

Market Position6/20

Demand Defensibility9/15

Operational Efficiency4/15

Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x

Est. MOIC: 1.5x

Risk Factors:

Catalysts:

-27.7%

R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B

Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-56.0%, 0.6%]. P14 nationally.

Driver	Value	Effect	Explanation
Revenue/Bed	0.009	-0.2205	Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin
Reimbursement Quality	0.494	-0.0843	Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m
Bed Utilization Value	0.006	-0.0290	Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma
Expense/Bed	1444560.936	+0.0262	Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin
Commercial %	0.989	+0.0165	Higher Commercial % increases predicted margin

nan%

Distress Risk

Risk: Unknown

National distress rate: 49.3%

GA distress rate: 44.4%

Model AUC: 0.629

Factor	Value	Contribution	Direction
Occupancy Rate	0.704	-0.166	▼ risk
Medicare Day Pct	0.011	-0.054	▼ risk
Medicaid Day Pct	nan	+nan	▼ risk
Revenue Per Bed	0.009	+0.093	▲ risk
Net To Gross Ratio	0.500	+0.059	▲ risk
Beds	110.000	-0.005	▼ risk

RCM Grade

Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.

Metric	Predicted	90% CI	Percentile	Assessment
Denial Rate	25.0%	[2.0%, 25.0%]	P83	Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu
Days in AR	75.0	[25.0, 75.0]	P83	Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun
Clean Claim Rate	98.0%	[80.0%, 98.0%]	P0	Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third.
Net Collection Rate	99.5%	[90.0%, 99.5%]	P8	Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third.