ML Analysis — EMORY REHABILITATION HOSPITAL
CCN 113031 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
53
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health8/25
RCM Upside14/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency5/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-4.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 2.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-32.9%, 23.7%]. P50 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 541877.125 | -0.1448 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 528622.536 | +0.1390 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 411285.798 | -0.0153 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Bed Count | 56.000 | +0.0145 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 0.759 | +0.0133 | Higher Occupancy increases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
43.6%
Distress Risk
$867K
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
5.3%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P53. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
GA distress rate: 44.4%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.759 | -0.217 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 541877.125 | +0.061 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.036 | -0.053 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 56.000 | -0.012 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.358 | -0.005 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.299 | -0.005 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $867K
Current margin: 2.5%
Projected margin: 5.3%
Grade: D
Comps: 66
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.665 | 0.709 | 4.4% | $664K | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.759 | 0.778 | 1.9% | $123K | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.358 | 0.380 | 2.3% | $81K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.7 | [25.0, 75.0] | P32 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |