ML Analysis — ST MARYS GOOD SAMARITAN
CCN 111329 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
50
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health8/25
RCM Upside14/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency5/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-5.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 2.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-34.1%, 22.5%]. P47 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 1209061.400 | +0.0552 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1239835.120 | -0.0474 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.219 | -0.0268 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 25.000 | +0.0193 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.028 | +0.0130 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
49.5%
Distress Risk
$2.6M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
10.8%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P4. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
GA distress rate: 44.4%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.459 | +0.061 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.028 | -0.060 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1239835.120 | +0.020 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 25.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.412 | +0.015 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.343 | -0.012 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.6M
Current margin: 2.5%
Projected margin: 10.8%
Grade: C
Comps: 62
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.560 | 0.647 | 8.7% | $1.3M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.459 | 0.560 | 10.1% | $667K | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.343 | 0.509 | 16.6% | $602K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 30.1 | [25.0, 75.0] | P59 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |