ML Analysis — ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN
CCN 110150 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
47
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health5/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-9.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -23.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-37.8%, 18.8%]. P38 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 616458.616 | -0.1344 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 763305.616 | +0.1101 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 247192.246 | -0.0208 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.248 | -0.0135 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.028 | +0.0130 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi |
Turnaround: 34%Turnaround possible (34%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
51.1%
Distress Risk
$3.6M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
-17.0%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P0. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
| MEDICAL CENTER BARBOUR | AL | 30 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
GA distress rate: 44.4%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.401 | +0.115 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 616458.616 | +0.057 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.248 | -0.054 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.207 | -0.021 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.069 | -0.020 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 86.000 | -0.008 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.6M
Current margin: -23.8%
Projected margin: -17.0%
Grade: C
Comps: 62
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.401 | 0.835 | 43.4% | $2.9M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.248 | 0.369 | 12.1% | $752K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 29.4 | [25.0, 75.0] | P53 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |