ML Analysis — APPLING GENERAL HOSPITAL
CCN 110071 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
47
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility5/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-15.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -23.7%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-44.2%, 12.4%]. P26 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 806706.500 | -0.1078 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 997753.882 | +0.0812 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 48558.401 | -0.0274 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Occupancy | 0.060 | -0.0264 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.282 | -0.0232 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m |
Turnaround: 25%Low turnaround probability (25%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Expense/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
63.3%
Distress Risk
$5.3M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
-4.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P58. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
GA distress rate: 44.4%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.060 | +0.432 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.507 | +0.061 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.141 | +0.052 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 806706.500 | +0.046 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 34.000 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.303 | -0.004 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.3M
Current margin: -23.7%
Projected margin: -4.2%
Grade: A
Comps: 76
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.060 | 0.621 | 56.1% | $3.7M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.557 | 0.666 | 10.9% | $1.6M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 31.7 | [25.0, 75.0] | P69 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |