ML Analysis — PIEDMONT NEWTON HOSPITAL
CCN 110018 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
56
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health14/25
RCM Upside14/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency3/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
0.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 4.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-27.4%, 29.2%]. P64 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.110 | +0.0263 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.157 | -0.0238 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1504241.404 | +0.0188 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.028 | +0.0130 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Occupancy | 0.739 | +0.0121 | Higher Occupancy increases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
41.0%
Distress Risk
$4.3M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
7.7%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P24. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| CLARA MAASS MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 259 |
| PRESENCE SAINTS MARY & ELIZABETH MED | IL | 266 |
| ADVENTIST HEALTH BAKERSFIELD | CA | 254 |
| BRISTOL REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | TN | 244 |
| HOLSTON VALLEY HOSP & MED CTR | TN | 286 |
| SPRINGFIELD REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 230 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
GA distress rate: 44.4%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.739 | -0.198 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.157 | -0.094 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.069 | -0.020 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.230 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 94.000 | -0.007 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1580074.926 | -0.000 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.3M
Current margin: 4.8%
Projected margin: 7.7%
Grade: D
Comps: 67
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.157 | 0.354 | 19.7% | $3.4M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.739 | 0.826 | 8.8% | $578K | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.702 | 0.723 | 2.2% | $326K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 26.1 | [25.0, 75.0] | P35 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |