ML Analysis — NEUROBEHAVIORAL HOSPITAL OF THE PB
CCN 104084 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
40
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-4.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -45.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-32.6%, 24.0%]. P51 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 108376.286 | -0.2053 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 157431.048 | +0.1848 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.032 | +0.0578 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 79583.959 | -0.0263 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.147 | -0.0249 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 42%Turnaround possible (42%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
44.2%
Distress Risk
$774K
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
-28.3%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P91. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
FL distress rate: 30.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.734 | -0.194 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.147 | -0.099 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 108376.286 | +0.087 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.149 | +0.060 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.064 | -0.045 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 42.000 | -0.014 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $774K
Current margin: -45.3%
Projected margin: -28.3%
Grade: A
Comps: 82
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.734 | 0.815 | 8.1% | $533K | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.147 | 0.600 | 45.3% | $241K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 33.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P73 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.1% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P4 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |