ML Analysis — CENTRAL FLORIDA BEHAVIORAL HEALTH
CCN 104072 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
46
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside7/25
Market Position6/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-1.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 11.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-29.6%, 27.0%]. P59 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 265881.080 | -0.1833 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 236706.925 | +0.1750 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.032 | +0.0578 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.350 | -0.0428 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 210632.574 | -0.0220 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
nan%
Distress Risk
$0
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
11.0%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
FL distress rate: 30.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.792 | -0.248 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.056 | -0.047 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 265881.080 | +0.078 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 174.000 | +0.003 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.371 | +0.001 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $0
Current margin: 11.0%
Projected margin: 11.0%
Grade: D
Comps: 119
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |