ML Analysis — THE VINES HOSPITAL
CCN 104071 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
42
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position10/20
Demand Defensibility7/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-3.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -24.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-32.2%, 24.4%]. P52 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 153452.867 | -0.1990 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 190569.704 | +0.1807 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.032 | +0.0578 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 83393.075 | -0.0262 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.271 | -0.0200 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m |
Turnaround: 43%Turnaround possible (43%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
nan%
Distress Risk
$1.6M
RCM Opportunity
B
Opportunity Grade
-13.3%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
FL distress rate: 30.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.105 | -0.038 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 153452.867 | +0.084 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.303 | -0.029 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.543 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 98.000 | -0.007 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.6M
Current margin: -24.2%
Projected margin: -13.3%
Grade: B
Comps: 117
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.543 | 0.770 | 22.7% | $1.5M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.303 | 0.385 | 8.2% | $145K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |