ML Analysis — PORT ST LUCIE HOSPITAL
CCN 104070 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
51
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position10/20
Demand Defensibility12/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
0.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 15.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-28.1%, 28.5%]. P63 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 218647.640 | -0.1899 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 184986.947 | +0.1814 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.032 | +0.0578 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 178248.745 | -0.0231 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.280 | -0.0227 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m |
nan%
Distress Risk
$1.1M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
21.8%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
FL distress rate: 30.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.815 | -0.269 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.351 | +0.004 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 218647.640 | +0.080 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.432 | +0.028 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 75.000 | -0.010 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.1M
Current margin: 15.4%
Projected margin: 21.8%
Grade: C
Comps: 120
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.649 | 0.719 | 7.0% | $1.1M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |