ML Analysis — ASPIRE HEALTH PARTNERS INC
CCN 104067 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
44
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health10/25
RCM Upside17/25
Market Position6/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-1.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -0.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-30.2%, 26.4%]. P57 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 1142601.411 | +0.0634 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1139193.733 | -0.0614 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.032 | +0.0578 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.342 | -0.0404 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Commercial % | 0.889 | +0.0124 | Higher Commercial % increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 47%Turnaround possible (47%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Expense/Bed.
nan%
Distress Risk
$2.0M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
1.6%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
FL distress rate: 30.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.475 | +0.047 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.111 | -0.037 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1139193.733 | +0.026 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 90.000 | -0.008 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.385 | +0.007 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.0M
Current margin: -0.3%
Projected margin: 1.6%
Grade: D
Comps: 120
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.475 | 0.775 | 30.0% | $2.0M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |