ML Analysis — THE WILLOUGH AT NAPLES
CCN 104063 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
46
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health12/25
RCM Upside11/25
Market Position10/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency7/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-0.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 5.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-29.2%, 27.4%]. P60 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 128908.207 | -0.2025 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 121778.034 | +0.1891 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.032 | +0.0578 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 62783.635 | -0.0269 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Medicaid % | 0.000 | +0.0108 | Higher Medicaid % increases predicted margin |
nan%
Distress Risk
$7.4M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
71.2%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
FL distress rate: 30.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.618 | +0.050 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 128908.207 | +0.086 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.449 | +0.036 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.487 | +0.035 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 87.000 | -0.008 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $7.4M
Current margin: 5.5%
Projected margin: 71.2%
Grade: A
Comps: 120
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.382 | 0.747 | 36.5% | $5.5M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.487 | 0.775 | 28.7% | $1.9M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |