ML Analysis — SOUTHERN WINDS HOSPITAL LLC
CCN 104049 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
50
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health12/25
RCM Upside11/25
Market Position10/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency7/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
0.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 6.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-27.4%, 29.2%]. P64 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 241556.972 | -0.1867 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 225080.694 | +0.1764 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.032 | +0.0578 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Occupancy | 0.943 | +0.0237 | Higher Occupancy increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 227797.049 | -0.0214 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
nan%
Distress Risk
$153K
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
7.7%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
FL distress rate: 30.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.943 | -0.388 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.293 | -0.006 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 241556.972 | +0.079 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 72.000 | -0.010 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.386 | +0.008 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $153K
Current margin: 6.8%
Projected margin: 7.7%
Grade: D
Comps: 117
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.707 | 0.716 | 0.9% | $137K | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.386 | 0.393 | 0.8% | $15K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |