ML Analysis — CIRCLES OF CARE INC.
CCN 104024 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
39
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health3/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position6/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-7.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -50.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-35.5%, 21.1%]. P44 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 152594.320 | -0.1992 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 283723.523 | +0.1692 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.426 | -0.0645 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.032 | +0.0578 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 77835.742 | -0.0264 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Turnaround: 38%Turnaround possible (38%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
nan%
Distress Risk
$1.6M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
-44.0%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
FL distress rate: 30.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.046 | -0.048 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 152594.320 | +0.084 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.446 | +0.035 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.510 | +0.014 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 172.000 | +0.003 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.6M
Current margin: -50.0%
Projected margin: -44.0%
Grade: C
Comps: 121
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.510 | 0.750 | 24.0% | $1.6M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |