ML Analysis — ENCOMPASS HEALTH REHABILITATION HOSP
CCN 103053 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
44
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health14/25
RCM Upside11/25
Market Position6/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency7/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
6.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 5.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-22.1%, 34.5%]. P76 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 226875.775 | -0.1888 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 215135.600 | +0.1776 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.032 | +0.0578 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.718 | +0.0392 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.082 | +0.0344 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
nan%
Distress Risk
$9.7M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
112.3%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
FL distress rate: 30.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.653 | -0.119 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.886 | +0.096 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.718 | +0.156 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 226875.775 | +0.080 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 40.000 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $9.7M
Current margin: 5.2%
Projected margin: 112.3%
Grade: A
Comps: 78
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.114 | 0.690 | 57.6% | $8.6M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.653 | 0.818 | 16.4% | $1.1M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |