ML Analysis — ENCOMPASS HEALTH REHABILITATION HOSP
CCN 103052 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
43
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health16/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position10/20
Demand Defensibility4/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
1.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 38.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-27.0%, 29.6%]. P66 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 125475.860 | -0.2029 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 76804.460 | +0.1947 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.032 | +0.0578 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 55649.645 | -0.0271 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.600 | +0.0260 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin |
nan%
Distress Risk
$9.6M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
192.3%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
FL distress rate: 30.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.600 | +0.103 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.779 | +0.078 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 125475.860 | +0.086 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.444 | +0.076 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 50.000 | -0.013 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $9.6M
Current margin: 38.8%
Projected margin: 192.3%
Grade: A
Comps: 95
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.221 | 0.700 | 47.9% | $7.2M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.444 | 0.815 | 37.1% | $2.5M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |