ML Analysis — ENCOMPASS HEALTH REHABILITATION HOSP
CCN 103042 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
47
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside7/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
5.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 11.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-22.4%, 34.2%]. P75 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 409239.650 | -0.1633 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 362285.450 | +0.1595 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.032 | +0.0578 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.683 | +0.0352 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy × Net-to-Gross | 0.523 | +0.0251 | Higher Occupancy × Net-to-Gross increases predicte |
nan%
Distress Risk
$6.5M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
31.4%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
FL distress rate: 30.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.767 | -0.224 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.689 | +0.062 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.683 | +0.140 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 409239.650 | +0.069 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 80.000 | -0.009 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.5M
Current margin: 11.5%
Projected margin: 31.4%
Grade: A
Comps: 122
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.311 | 0.742 | 43.1% | $6.5M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.767 | 0.773 | 0.7% | $45K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |