ML Analysis — KINDRED HOSPITAL NORTH FLORIDA
CCN 102015 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
44
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position10/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-3.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -28.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-31.6%, 25.0%]. P54 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 419139.776 | -0.1619 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 538042.483 | +0.1379 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.032 | +0.0578 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.124 | +0.0223 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 216836.033 | -0.0218 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Turnaround: 44%Turnaround possible (44%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
nan%
Distress Risk
$3.7M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
-13.0%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
FL distress rate: 30.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.195 | -0.077 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.517 | +0.007 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.364 | +0.006 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 419139.776 | +0.068 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 58.000 | -0.012 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.7M
Current margin: -28.4%
Projected margin: -13.0%
Grade: A
Comps: 99
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.517 | 0.817 | 29.9% | $2.0M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.636 | 0.704 | 6.8% | $1.0M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.195 | 0.455 | 26.0% | $741K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |