ML Analysis — CURAHEALTH JACKSONVILLE LLC
CCN 102012 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
37
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position6/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-3.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -6.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-31.9%, 24.7%]. P53 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 175705.028 | -0.1959 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 187176.149 | +0.1811 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.032 | +0.0578 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 46514.256 | -0.0274 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.125 | +0.0220 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 44%Turnaround possible (44%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
nan%
Distress Risk
$8.3M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
37.9%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
FL distress rate: 30.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.265 | +0.242 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.560 | +0.040 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 175705.028 | +0.083 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.284 | -0.038 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 107.000 | -0.006 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $8.3M
Current margin: -6.5%
Projected margin: 37.9%
Grade: A
Comps: 120
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.440 | 0.764 | 32.5% | $4.9M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.265 | 0.764 | 49.9% | $3.3M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.284 | 0.368 | 8.3% | $183K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |