ML Analysis — SSH -ORLANDO
CCN 102003 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
47
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside12/25
Market Position6/20
Demand Defensibility12/15
Operational Efficiency3/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
3.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 5.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-25.0%, 31.6%]. P70 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 606448.111 | -0.1358 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 574462.384 | +0.1334 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.032 | +0.0578 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.078 | +0.0354 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.120 | -0.0279 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
nan%
Distress Risk
$3.5M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
11.1%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
FL distress rate: 30.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.897 | -0.345 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.347 | +0.003 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.120 | -0.111 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 606448.111 | +0.057 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 99.000 | -0.007 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.5M
Current margin: 5.3%
Projected margin: 11.1%
Grade: D
Comps: 117
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.120 | 0.385 | 26.5% | $1.9M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.653 | 0.764 | 11.1% | $1.7M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |