ML Analysis — ADVENTHEALTH WAUCHULA
CCN 101300 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
55
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health17/25
RCM Upside8/25
Market Position16/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency7/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
7.4%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 10.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-20.9%, 35.7%]. P78 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | 0.032 | +0.0578 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Expense/Bed | 1279538.240 | +0.0465 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.100 | +0.0291 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.219 | -0.0268 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 0.920 | +0.0225 | Higher Occupancy increases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
37.8%
Distress Risk
$5.2M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
24.5%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P92. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
FL distress rate: 30.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.920 | -0.367 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.001 | -0.088 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.248 | -0.054 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.596 | +0.046 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 25.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1421914.840 | +0.009 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.2M
Current margin: 10.0%
Projected margin: 24.5%
Grade: A
Comps: 41
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.404 | 0.652 | 24.8% | $3.7M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.248 | 0.592 | 34.3% | $1.4M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 29.1 | [25.0, 75.0] | P52 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |