ML Analysis — ASCENSION ST. VINCENTS ST. JOHNS COU
CCN 100361 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
48
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position17/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-5.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -30.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-34.2%, 22.4%]. P47 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 599903.911 | -0.1367 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 782089.196 | +0.1078 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.032 | +0.0578 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.104 | +0.0281 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.158 | -0.0236 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 40%Turnaround possible (40%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
52.2%
Distress Risk
$5.4M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
-14.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P3. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
FL distress rate: 30.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.280 | +0.227 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.158 | -0.094 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.026 | -0.062 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 599903.911 | +0.058 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 56.000 | -0.012 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.319 | -0.001 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.4M
Current margin: -30.4%
Projected margin: -14.2%
Grade: A
Comps: 96
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.280 | 0.815 | 53.5% | $3.5M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.158 | 0.453 | 29.5% | $1.2M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.655 | 0.704 | 4.9% | $734K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 32.9 | [25.0, 75.0] | P73 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |