ML Analysis — WESTCHESTER GENERAL HOSPITAL
CCN 100284 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
47
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health3/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position17/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-6.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -50.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-34.6%, 22.0%]. P46 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 346408.010 | -0.1721 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 569099.663 | +0.1340 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.032 | +0.0578 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 102711.864 | -0.0256 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.113 | +0.0254 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 39%Turnaround possible (39%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
53.6%
Distress Risk
$7.4M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
-28.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P66. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
FL distress rate: 30.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.297 | +0.212 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 346408.010 | +0.073 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.217 | -0.067 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.027 | -0.062 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.451 | +0.021 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 98.000 | -0.007 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $7.4M
Current margin: -50.0%
Projected margin: -28.1%
Grade: A
Comps: 117
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.522 | 0.764 | 24.2% | $3.6M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.297 | 0.770 | 47.4% | $3.1M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.217 | 0.385 | 16.8% | $665K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 33.7 | [25.0, 75.0] | P76 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.4% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P7 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |