ML Analysis — SEVEN RIVERS REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 100249 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Buy — solid fundamentals with identifiable value creation levers. Proceed to detailed diligence.
61
/ 100 (B)
Financial Health18/25
RCM Upside7/25
Market Position17/20
Demand Defensibility12/15
Operational Efficiency7/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
3.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 13.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-24.6%, 32.0%]. P71 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 891946.512 | +0.0943 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1026059.578 | -0.0772 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.032 | +0.0578 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.067 | +0.0386 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.104 | -0.0297 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
43.0%
Distress Risk
$6.3M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
18.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P15. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
FL distress rate: 30.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.104 | -0.118 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.619 | -0.087 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.009 | -0.080 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1026059.579 | +0.033 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 121.000 | -0.004 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.344 | +0.003 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.3M
Current margin: 13.1%
Projected margin: 18.1%
Grade: D
Comps: 117
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.104 | 0.354 | 25.0% | $3.6M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.647 | 0.766 | 11.9% | $1.8M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.619 | 0.754 | 13.5% | $889K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 26.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P34 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |