ML Analysis — HCA FL FAWCETT HOSPITAL
CCN 100236 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
60
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health8/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position17/20
Demand Defensibility15/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
0.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -14.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-28.2%, 28.4%]. P62 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 823872.949 | -0.1054 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 939318.897 | +0.0884 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.032 | +0.0578 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.043 | +0.0457 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.070 | -0.0334 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 50%Turnaround possible (50%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
42.3%
Distress Risk
$5.9M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-10.9%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P39. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| CLARA MAASS MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 259 |
| PRESENCE SAINTS MARY & ELIZABETH MED | IL | 266 |
| ADVENTIST HEALTH BAKERSFIELD | CA | 254 |
| BRISTOL REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | TN | 244 |
| HOLSTON VALLEY HOSP & MED CTR | TN | 286 |
| SPRINGFIELD REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 230 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
FL distress rate: 30.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.690 | -0.153 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.070 | -0.133 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.027 | -0.062 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 823872.948 | +0.045 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 233.000 | +0.011 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.367 | +0.007 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.9M
Current margin: -14.0%
Projected margin: -10.9%
Grade: D
Comps: 114
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.070 | 0.210 | 14.0% | $3.1M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.606 | 0.767 | 16.1% | $2.4M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.690 | 0.749 | 5.9% | $390K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 26.3 | [25.0, 75.0] | P36 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |