ML Analysis — HCA FLORIDA WESTSIDE HOSPITAL
CCN 100228 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
54
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health19/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility13/15
Operational Efficiency7/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
8.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 34.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-19.6%, 37.0%]. P80 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 827717.576 | +0.1022 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.032 | +0.0578 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1269131.692 | -0.0433 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.077 | +0.0358 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.103 | -0.0298 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
41.5%
Distress Risk
$4.7M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
36.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P83. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| CLARA MAASS MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 259 |
| PRESENCE SAINTS MARY & ELIZABETH MED | IL | 266 |
| ADVENTIST HEALTH BAKERSFIELD | CA | 254 |
| BRISTOL REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | TN | 244 |
| HOLSTON VALLEY HOSP & MED CTR | TN | 286 |
| SPRINGFIELD REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 230 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
FL distress rate: 30.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.693 | -0.156 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.103 | -0.118 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.031 | -0.057 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.220 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1269131.692 | +0.018 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 250.000 | +0.014 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.7M
Current margin: 34.8%
Projected margin: 36.2%
Grade: D
Comps: 112
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.103 | 0.210 | 10.7% | $4.0M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.693 | 0.754 | 6.1% | $400K | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.749 | 0.767 | 1.8% | $276K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |