ML Analysis — ST. PETERSBURG GENERAL
CCN 100180 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
41
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health19/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position4/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency5/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
1.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 25.9%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-27.1%, 29.5%]. P65 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 452671.667 | +0.1484 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 610978.607 | -0.1352 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.032 | +0.0578 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.049 | +0.0440 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.064 | -0.0342 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
nan%
Distress Risk
$4.5M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
30.3%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
FL distress rate: 30.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.395 | +0.121 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.233 | -0.016 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.064 | -0.136 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 610978.607 | +0.057 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 168.000 | +0.003 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.5M
Current margin: 25.9%
Projected margin: 30.3%
Grade: D
Comps: 124
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.395 | 0.754 | 35.9% | $2.4M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.064 | 0.243 | 17.9% | $2.2M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |