ML Analysis — LOWER KEYS MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 100150 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
58
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health19/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position17/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
1.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 27.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-26.7%, 29.9%]. P66 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 879486.495 | +0.0958 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.032 | +0.0578 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1207094.778 | -0.0520 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 316680.739 | -0.0185 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.149 | +0.0152 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
53.9%
Distress Risk
$7.8M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
33.7%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P65. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
FL distress rate: 30.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.262 | +0.244 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.252 | -0.052 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.063 | -0.026 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1207094.778 | +0.022 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 99.000 | -0.007 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.345 | +0.003 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $7.8M
Current margin: 27.1%
Projected margin: 33.7%
Grade: C
Comps: 117
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.262 | 0.770 | 50.8% | $3.4M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.592 | 0.764 | 17.2% | $2.6M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.252 | 0.385 | 13.3% | $1.9M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.9 | [25.0, 75.0] | P34 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |