ML Analysis — JACKSON HOSPITAL MARIANNA
CCN 100142 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
60
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health7/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position17/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-1.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -9.7%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-30.1%, 26.5%]. P57 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 1140963.758 | -0.0612 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.032 | +0.0578 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Expense/Bed | 1251460.636 | +0.0500 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 66.000 | +0.0129 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 579670.213 | -0.0097 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Turnaround: 47%Turnaround possible (47%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
49.5%
Distress Risk
$4.3M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-3.9%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P17. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
FL distress rate: 30.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.062 | -0.027 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1140963.758 | +0.026 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.508 | +0.016 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 66.000 | -0.011 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.345 | +0.003 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.371 | +0.001 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.3M
Current margin: -9.7%
Projected margin: -3.9%
Grade: D
Comps: 109
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.508 | 0.815 | 30.6% | $2.0M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.593 | 0.716 | 12.2% | $1.8M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.371 | 0.427 | 5.5% | $487K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 27.7 | [25.0, 75.0] | P41 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |