ML Analysis — ED FRASER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
CCN 100134 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
44
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position10/20
Demand Defensibility4/15
Operational Efficiency11/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
0.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 17.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-27.8%, 28.8%]. P63 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | 0.032 | +0.0578 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1937006.238 | +0.0499 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.045 | -0.0309 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 0.103 | -0.0240 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.575 | +0.0231 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin |
nan%
Distress Risk
$7.6M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
36.4%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
FL distress rate: 30.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.103 | +0.392 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.578 | +0.043 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.575 | +0.092 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1937006.238 | -0.021 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 21.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $7.6M
Current margin: 17.8%
Projected margin: 36.4%
Grade: A
Comps: 25
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.103 | 0.734 | 63.1% | $4.2M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.422 | 0.649 | 22.7% | $3.4M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |