ML Analysis — LARKIN HOSP PALM SPRINGS CAMPUS LLC
CCN 100050 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Pass — risk/return profile does not justify PE capital deployment at market multiples.
26
/ 100 (F)
Financial Health0/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-43.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-71.4%, -14.8%]. P8 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | -2121387.336 | -0.5166 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 664499.731 | +0.1223 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | -933781.616 | -0.0599 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.000 | +0.0580 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.032 | +0.0578 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi |
nan%
Distress Risk
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
FL distress rate: 30.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Per Bed | -2121387.336 | +0.218 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.002 | -0.086 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.440 | +0.079 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.309 | -0.003 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 119.000 | -0.004 | ▼ risk |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.9 | [25.0, 75.0] | P34 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |