ML Analysis — BETHESDA HOSPITAL
CCN 100002 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
49
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health7/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility12/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-6.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -36.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-34.6%, 22.0%]. P46 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 825819.266 | -0.1052 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1125446.985 | +0.0655 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.032 | +0.0578 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Count | 406.000 | -0.0401 | Higher Bed Count decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 6.006 | +0.0379 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 39%Turnaround possible (39%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
48.7%
Distress Risk
$6.3M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-34.4%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P88. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
FL distress rate: 30.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.141 | -0.101 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.156 | +0.067 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.590 | -0.060 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 825819.266 | +0.044 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 406.000 | +0.034 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.274 | -0.009 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.3M
Current margin: -36.3%
Projected margin: -34.4%
Grade: D
Comps: 90
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.570 | 0.754 | 18.4% | $2.8M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.141 | 0.205 | 6.3% | $2.5M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.590 | 0.754 | 16.4% | $1.1M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 26.4 | [25.0, 75.0] | P37 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |