ML Analysis — PSYCH INSTITUE OF WASHINGTON
CCN 094004 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
47
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-7.4%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 15.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-35.7%, 20.9%]. P43 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 290123.377 | -0.1800 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 245076.246 | +0.1740 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.427 | -0.0650 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.594 | +0.0252 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 223697.658 | -0.0215 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
49.2%
Distress Risk
$536K
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
17.0%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P79. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| CLARA MAASS MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 259 |
| PRESENCE SAINTS MARY & ELIZABETH MED | IL | 266 |
| ADVENTIST HEALTH BAKERSFIELD | CA | 254 |
| BRISTOL REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | TN | 244 |
| HOLSTON VALLEY HOSP & MED CTR | TN | 286 |
| SPRINGFIELD REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 230 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
DC distress rate: 36.4%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.771 | -0.228 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.594 | +0.100 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.175 | +0.086 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 290123.377 | +0.076 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.105 | -0.038 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 130.000 | -0.003 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $536K
Current margin: 15.5%
Projected margin: 17.0%
Grade: D
Comps: 2097
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.720 | 0.756 | 3.6% | $536K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |