ML Analysis — SPECIALTY HOSPITAL OF WASHINGTON
CCN 092002 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
51
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health16/25
RCM Upside7/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency11/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
1.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 13.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-26.8%, 29.8%]. P66 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 900069.100 | +0.0933 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1038146.100 | -0.0755 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.674 | +0.0343 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy × Net-to-Gross | 0.461 | +0.0205 | Higher Occupancy × Net-to-Gross increases predicte | |
| Bed Count | 60.000 | +0.0138 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
50.2%
Distress Risk
$5.6M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
22.3%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P64. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
DC distress rate: 36.4%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.684 | -0.148 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.674 | +0.136 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.554 | +0.039 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1038146.100 | +0.032 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 60.000 | -0.012 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.078 | -0.011 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.6M
Current margin: 13.3%
Projected margin: 22.3%
Grade: C
Comps: 2149
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.368 | 0.724 | 35.6% | $5.3M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.684 | 0.723 | 3.9% | $257K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |