ML Analysis — NOT-FOR-PROFIT HOSPITAL CORPORATION
CCN 090008 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
48
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health5/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-10.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -43.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-39.1%, 17.5%]. P35 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 810234.764 | -0.1074 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1162547.179 | +0.0609 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 389659.846 | -0.0160 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.029 | +0.0125 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Log(Beds) | 4.812 | +0.0102 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 32%Turnaround possible (32%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
52.4%
Distress Risk
$5.0M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-38.5%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P15. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
DC distress rate: 36.4%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Per Bed | 810234.764 | +0.045 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.481 | +0.041 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.128 | +0.039 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 123.000 | -0.003 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.372 | +0.001 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.322 | -0.001 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.0M
Current margin: -43.5%
Projected margin: -38.5%
Grade: D
Comps: 2074
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.551 | 0.755 | 20.5% | $3.1M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.481 | 0.749 | 26.8% | $1.8M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.372 | 0.383 | 1.1% | $133K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 29.3 | [25.0, 75.0] | P52 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |