ML Analysis — ST. FRANCIS HOSPITAL WILMINGTON
CCN 080003 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
48
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside17/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-4.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -2.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-33.2%, 23.4%]. P50 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 883679.788 | -0.0971 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 906018.685 | +0.0925 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.007 | +0.0391 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 289994.223 | -0.0193 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Log(Beds) | 4.984 | +0.0142 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 41%Turnaround possible (41%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
53.0%
Distress Risk
$5.3M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
1.6%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P36. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
DE distress rate: 28.6%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.328 | +0.183 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 883679.788 | +0.041 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.053 | -0.036 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.297 | -0.032 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.282 | -0.008 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 146.000 | -0.000 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.3M
Current margin: -2.5%
Projected margin: 1.6%
Grade: D
Comps: 2065
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.328 | 0.749 | 42.1% | $2.8M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.665 | 0.757 | 9.2% | $1.4M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.297 | 0.375 | 7.7% | $1.2M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.9 | [25.0, 75.0] | P33 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |