ML Analysis — SILVER HILL HOSPITAL
CCN 074014 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
35
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health2/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position4/20
Demand Defensibility4/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-18.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -16.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-46.3%, 10.3%]. P23 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.669 | -0.1344 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1291348.943 | -0.0402 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.708 | +0.0381 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.555 | -0.0190 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1505797.514 | +0.0187 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 22%Low turnaround probability (22%). Structural disadvantages in Reimbursement Quality and Revenue/Bed.
nan%
Distress Risk
$1.3M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-13.7%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
CT distress rate: 74.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.419 | +0.098 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.056 | -0.046 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.708 | +0.151 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1291348.943 | +0.017 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 35.000 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.3M
Current margin: -16.6%
Projected margin: -13.7%
Grade: D
Comps: 2634
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.419 | 0.619 | 20.0% | $1.3M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |