ML Analysis — MOUNT SINAI REHABILITATION HOSPTIAL
CCN 073025 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
46
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health3/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-12.4%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -9.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-40.8%, 15.8%]. P32 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 399733.317 | -0.1647 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 435843.850 | +0.1505 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 204667.109 | -0.0222 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.134 | +0.0194 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Medicaid % | 0.237 | -0.0179 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 29%Low turnaround probability (29%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Expense/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
53.9%
Distress Risk
$6.7M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
19.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P81. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
CT distress rate: 74.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.237 | +0.148 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 399733.317 | +0.070 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.294 | -0.033 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.512 | +0.012 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 60.000 | -0.012 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.308 | -0.003 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.7M
Current margin: -9.0%
Projected margin: 19.1%
Grade: A
Comps: 11
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.455 | 0.773 | 31.8% | $4.8M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.512 | 0.775 | 26.3% | $1.7M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.294 | 0.378 | 8.3% | $233K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 29.7 | [25.0, 75.0] | P57 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |